By Hélène Landemore, Jon Elster
James Madison wrote, "Had each Athenian citizen been a Socrates, each Athenian meeting may nonetheless were a mob." The members to this quantity talk about and for the main half problem this declare by means of contemplating stipulations lower than which many minds may be wiser than one. With backgrounds in economics, cognitive technological know-how, political technology, legislation, and historical past, the authors think about info markets, the web, jury debates, democratic deliberation, and using variety as mechanisms for bettering collective judgements. while, they give thought to voter irrationality and paradoxes of aggregation as probably undermining the knowledge of teams. Implicitly or explicitly, the amount additionally deals advice and warnings to institutional designers.
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Extra info for Collective Wisdom: Principles and Mechanisms
These traditions comprise a thick lore of judgments, values, and opinions, one that penetrates the minds of individuals through education and socialization. Such traditions were a necessary background to wisdom, since they not only organize our conception of the world but also suggest which institutions are required to live in it. Burke’s renowned antipathy to revolutions reflected his suspicion that they risked wiping out these traditions and compromising civilization. Without access to these sources, we are (collectively and individually) condemned to reinvent the wheel at each generation.
Those predictions were scored by the quadratic scoring rule, one of the so-called proper scoring rules designed to elicit honest forecasts. Although the collective intelligence emerged forcefully in each case – outperforming all but a few individuals – there was no advantage for the markets over a simple arithmetic average of the individual predictions. Limited laboratory experiments have shown that when the number of people in a crowd is particularly small, say around a dozen, some simple betting schemes may even beat the market (Chen, Fine, and Huberman 2003).
North Charleston, SC: Imprint Books. , Paul F. Lazarsfeld, and William N. McPhee. 1954. Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. boyd, danah. 2008. ” PhD dissertation, University of California–Berkeley, School of Information. Caplan, Bryan. 2007. The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Converse, Philip. 1990. ” In J. A. Ferejohn and J. H. ), Information and Democratic Processes, 369–88.