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By Roger Cliff

China's economic climate is predicted to develop over the subsequent two decades at a fee that might make it better than the U.S. economic climate on the finish of that interval. this implies that China has the industrial capability to be a U.S. army rival by way of the 12 months 2020. yet can it turn into the sort of rival? at the moment, China's army is basically in keeping with Nineteen Fifties Soviet know-how. to supply weaponry technologically similar to U.S. weaponry by means of 2020, China must increase its technological features via inner, defense-industry efforts and/or different avenues: direct transfers of army expertise from overseas, imports of parts and gear, and diffusion from China's civilian industries. of those 3, the 3rd, diffusion from civilian industries, is the main promising over the longer term. This record explores this selection, analyzing China's present advertisement know-how in 8 industries (microelectronics, desktops, telecommunications apparatus, nuclear energy, biotechnology, chemical substances, aviation, and area) that experience the main strength for assisting army expertise improvement, and assessing the clients for technological development (in phrases of services, attempt, incentives, and associations) over the subsequent 10 to twenty years. The findings recommend that even supposing China's army should not the U.S. military's technological equivalent by way of 2020, the U.S. nonetheless needs to organize for a chinese language army whose functions will gradually increase within the subsequent 10 to twenty years, maybe constructing services in convinced niches that might current problems for the U.S. army in a few potential-conflict eventualities.

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Substantial government and academic laboratory research has been sponsored, however, and biotechnology was one of the major research areas under the Chinese government’s HighTechnology Plan of 1986. China’s leadership aims to achieve parity with the developed world in biotechnology research by 2005 and to become an important player in the industry. (Saywell 1998, p. 49; BioIndustry Association 1996, pp. 7–122; Baark 1991a, p. 87; Futures 1989, p. 227; Layman 1996, p. ) There are a number of barriers, however, to the emergence of a dynamic biotechnology industry in China.

The 24 transponders on these satellites are far short of the estimated 150 transponders China needs, and the shortfall has been partially met by purchasing and launching foreign-built satellites and leasing transponder capacity China’s Current Civilian Technology 29 from consortium-owned satellite providers. In the meantime, more advanced communications satellites are under development in China. (Clark 1997b, pp. 331–332; Zhu 1996, p. ) China also has limited photo-reconnaissance satellite capability.

More Taiwanese nationals earn science and engineering doctorates in the United States, for example, than in Taiwan. Including doctorates earned in the United States, only about twice as many Chinese as Taiwanese earn doctorates in science and engineering. Many of these people continue working in the United States, however, rather than returning to their home countries. (National Science Foundation 1993, pp. S. Japan India S. 5—Number of Doctoral Degrees Awarded in Natural Science and Engineering EFFORT Technological effort is difficult to measure directly, but indicators include numbers of scientists and engineers in R&D, expenditures on R&D, numbers of scientific and technical publications, and numbers of innovations and patents.

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