Download Weapons for Peace, Weapons for War: The Effect of Arms by Cassady B. Craft PDF

By Cassady B. Craft

This balanced evaluation of the impression of fingers transfers on conflict is the 1st examine to envision its impact on mixed interstate and civil wars. utilizing cutting edge concepts, this e-book has the aptitude to alter the way in which analysts weigh the influence of guns revenues.

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Extra info for Weapons for Peace, Weapons for War: The Effect of Arms Transfers on War Outbreak, Involvement and Outcomes

Sample text

10 contain time-series of these data). 49 COW codes wars based upon the criteria of 1,000 battle fatalities among all of the system members involved (to be included as a system member, a state must suffer either 100 battle deaths, or commit a minimum of 1,000 armed personnel to combat in the war). 50 The COW data for number of participants are available in two forms. First is information concerning the number of participants in wars that begin during the current year. , wars begun and wars continuing.

One final note: Because these tests cover the universe of states in the international system for the 1950–1992 period, inferential statistics are inappropriate. Significance levels serve only as a guide to substantive significance. The results show that there is a positive, albeit modest, relationship between arms transfers and war outbreak on the systemic level. In terms of Hypothesis 2–1a, considering a direct (or lagged one to three years) relationship, we see that the Lag 1 variable has the highest correlation.

In the test of Hypothesis 2–6a (2–6b) on the severity or bloodiness of wars, we find very weak negative correlations with the yearly and cumulative arms transfers variables when controlling for number of ongoing wars and participants. Likewise, when we look at the various rate of change indicators, we see such weak relationships that the explained variance of the best of these, rate of change on deaths per participant, is only a minuscule 3 percent. 2508). These associations sometimes indicate that weapons acquisition slowdowns over time associate with greater amounts of war deaths, but this relationship is very faint (only about 5 percent of the variance is explained by even the strongest relationship).

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